Sven Harmeling, Germanwatch

The UNFCCC concluded in its press release at the end of COP17 that the Parties “have delivered a breakthrough on the future of the international community´s response to climate change, whilst recognizing the urgent need to raise their collective level of ambition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to keep the average global temperature rise below two degrees Celsius.” This statement quite well categorises a breakthrough which is insufficient to put the world on a track to stay below 2°C temperature increase, but which nevertheless provides a better foundation for a safe climate future than a failure in Durban would have meant.

What has been achieved in Durban?

At the end of the longest COP ever, Parties agreed a comprehensive package of decisions, which can be categorised into three groups:

• Contours of the future regime: with the establishment of the new “Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action”, a process has been launched which aims to result in an overall comprehensive legally-binding agreement for all Parties (“develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the UNFCCC applicable to all Parties”); this agreement shall be negotiated until 2015 and shall come into effect and be implemented from 2020;

• Extension of the Kyoto Protocol: it was decided to have a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, with a so far undetermined end date (2017 or 2020); however, some rules still need to be worked out in the course of 2012, including the specific mitigation targets that Parties will apply; it is also not yet clear which Parties will finally be part of the 2nd commitment period;

• Operationalisation of the Cancún Agreements, through several operational decisions, including on institutions such as the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Committee, the Standing Committee on Finance, concretisation of new processes such as the work programme on loss and damage, and the National Adaptation Plans.

Of course there is still a lot of unfinished business to address in the years to come, including scaling-up climate finance to the promised level of USD 100 billions by 2020 mobilised from developed countries to support climate action in developing countries.

However, overall and against the background of the current geopolitical situation, the achievement from Durban is a major step forward which provides opportunities. In Durban, Parties managed to counter attempts - in particular by the USA - to shift the world away from a multilateral rules-based system towards a mere voluntary pledge and review approach. A crucial element in the endgame dynamics of Durban has been the emerging strategic alliance between the EU and particularly vulnerable countries, in particular the small island states and the Least Developed Countries. But also the emerging economies South Africa, Brazil, China and India have played an overall much more constructive role than for example the USA, Canada – which waited until after the conference close to announce its planned withdrawal from Kyoto - or Russia. Eventually, all Parties agreed to work in the coming years towards a universal legally-binding agreement.

Negotiations, action and alliance: the strategic triad to build on Durban

After the ground has been laid to close the gap on a binding agreement, it is crucial to close the remaining emissions gap as well as the closely associated climate finance gap. It must be ensured that negotiating an agreement for post-2020 does not result in postponing further mitigation ambition until post-2020. That would definitely mean the bells would toll for the funeral of the 2°C objective.

In the UNFCCC context, a number of elements have been agreed in Durban which can hopefully be combined to increase Parties' ambition, despite the fact that some relevant rules have been watered down in the last days of negotiations (such as on guidelines for mitigation reporting, or inclusion of emissions from forest management):

Both the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action decision as well as decisions on the Kyoto Protocol clearly recognise the existing ambition gap, with the Kyoto Protocol decision referring to the well-known IPCC range of 25 to 40% emission reductions from Annex I countries by 2020 (compared to 1990);

• Under the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, a workplan on enhancing mitigation ambition has been launched to explore options for closing the ambition gap; Parties and observer organisations are invited to submit by 28 February 2012 their views on options and ways for further increasing the level of ambition;

The so-called Review will assess the adequacy of efforts undertaken by Parties towards the objective of staying below 2°C, will draw on inter alia the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC and will be carried out from 2013 to 2015; thereby its results will feed into the legally-binding agreement to be negotiated.

However, closing the gaps will not be achieved through the UNFCCC process alone. An interlinked strategy of negotiations, actions and the consolidation and strengthening of new alliances will be required.

Action: All governments, regions, communities, private sector and civil society need to increase their efforts in order to show that more mitigation ambition is possible. Particularly relevant examples include Germany´s attempt to phase out nuclear energy while at the same time keep its relatively ambitious mitigation targets of 40% absolute reduction by 2020. At the same time the world even more has its eyes on China and hopes for the success of initiatives such as the low-carbon development which cover areas with 300 million inhabitants. The EU now faces its litmus test, by showing whether it will be able to scale up its ambition to 30% emission reduction in the first half of 2012.

Alliances: Building on the game changer role of newly emerging alliances of progressive countries, it will be crucial in the next years to strengthen these coalitions through concrete action as well as joint negotiation strategies, towards transformative mitigation and adaptation policies and support for these. This will also be required to pressure those countries which usually hinder progress.

What role for Rio+20?

Since the legal frameworks have been set, Rio+20 has the chance to step in, in order to help closing the emissions gap. The key role is to promote the mental and factual paradigm shift that low-carbon and climate-resilient development provides tremendous opportunities and in the end are the only way towards sustainable development. Of course they will look different from country to country. Governments and other stakeholders should build on the many promising initiatives that exist around the world and should seek to scale them up in order to initiate the transformation towards green economies which harness the opportunities that a resource-efficient and ecological economy can entail also for the poor. Green economy roadmaps can help identify potential for further increasing the ambition as soon as possible. Strengthening global environmental governance can help building the international frameworks required to effectively support those who are willing to move forward.

The proposal made jointly by the EU and AOSIS to convene a high-level Ministerial Forum during Rio+20 to consider policies and ways to increase the aggregate level of mitigation ambition, with a view to informing the new UNFCCC work programme, could be another element of how Rio+20 could be of use.

Durban has shown that it is still possible that the world unites in the face of urgent threats, Now Rio+20 can do its share to infuse the energy required for an upward spiral.

FOR MORE INFORMATION Sven Harmeling is the Team Leader of International Climate Policy, Germanwatch ( This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ).